Indonesia’s population of 242 million is served by power generation capacity of only 21.4 GWe, producing 133 billion kWh/yr (2006). In 2006 44% came from brown coal, 29% from oil, 15% from gas, 7% from hydro and 5% from geothermal. It has per capita electricity consumption: 475 kWh/yr.
With an industrial production growth rate of 10.5%, electricity demand is estimated to reach 175 TWh in 2013 and 450 billion kWh in 2026. At present a low reserve margin with poor power plant availability results in frequent blackouts.
About 45% of Indonesia’s electricity is generated by oil and gas, so as well as catering for growth in demand in its most populous region, the move to nuclear power will free up oil for export.
Three research reactors are operated by the National Atomic Energy Agency (BATAN), the third of them being intended to support the introduction of nuclear power to the country. It is a 30 MW (thermal) unit at the Serpong Nuclear Facility near Jakarta, and started up in 1987.
Following earlier tentative proposals, in 1989 the government initiated a study focused on the Muria Peninsula in central Java and carried out by the National Atomic Energy Agency (BATAN). It led to a comprehensive feasibility study for a 7000 MWe plant, completed in 1996, with Ujung Lemahabang as the specific site, selected for its tectonic stability. Plans for the initial plant on the Muria Peninsula in central Java were then deferred indefinitely early in 1997.
Then a 2001 power generation strategy showed that introduction of a nuclear plant on the Java-Bali grid would be possible in 2016 for 2 GWe rising to 6-7 GWe in 2025, using proven 1000 MWe technology with 85% capacity factor and investment cost $2000/kWe. The Java-Bali interconnected system accounts for more than three quarters of Indonesia’s electricity demand.
Late in 2003 BATAN had narrowed the choice of plant to the South Korean OPR-1000 or the Canadian ACR-700. Subsequent reports pointed to the Korean OPR-1000 option and suggest an increasing sense of urgency due to power shortages.
Under the 2006 Law on Nuclear Reactors the project may be given to an Independent Power Producer to build and operate, on one of three sites on the central north coast of Java. Plans were to call tenders in 2008 for two 1000 MWe units, Muria 1 & 2, leading to decision in 2010 with construction starting soon after and commercial operation from 2016 and 2017, but this schedule has slipped. Fuel services would be purchased from abroad and fuel would preferably be leased. Used fuel would be stored centrally in the medium term. Tenders for Muria units 3 & 4 were expected to be called for in 2016, for operation from 2023.
The government has said that it has $8 billion earmarked for four nuclear plants of total 6 GWe to be in operation by 2025. Under current plans it aims to meet 2% of power demand from nuclear by 2017. It is anticipated that nuclear generation cost would be about 4 cents/kWh (US) compared with 7 c/kWh for oil and gas.
In July 2007 Korea Electric Power Corp. and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. (KHNP) signed a memorandum of understanding with Indonesia’s PT Medco Energi Internasional to progress a feasibility study on building two 1000 MWe OPR-1000 units from KHNP at a cost of US$ 3 billion. This was part of a wider energy collaboration.
In addition, Batan has undertaken a pre-feasibility study for a small Korean SMART reactor for power and desalination on Madura. However, this awaits the building of a reference plant in Korea. Also the province of Gorontalo on Sulawesi is reported to be considering a floating nuclear power plant from Russia, and late in 2007 a cooperation agreement with Japan was signed, envisaging its help in building and operating nuclear power plants.
The Japanese and Indonesian governments signed a cooperation agreement in November 2007 relating to assistance to be provided for the preparation, planning, and promotion of Indonesia’s nuclear power development and assistance for public relations activities.
The IAEA is reviewing the safety aspects of both Muria and Madura proposals, with Indonesia’s Nuclear Technology Supervisory Agency.
During the 1980s Indonesia trained many technical people in anticipation of nuclear power development then, many of these are still available for the new project.
Indonesia has several nuclear facilities in operation. In addition to three research reactors, it has front-end capabilities in ore processing, conversion and fuel fabrication, all at a laboratory scale. There have been no experiments in reprocessing, but there is a radwaste program for spent fuel from the research reactors.
There are some uranium resources in Kalimantan.
Indonesia’s safeguards agreement with the IAEA under the NPT entered force in 1980 and the Additional Protocol entered force in 1999. In 1997 it signed the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and Radioactive Waste Management.
The Philippines produced 56.7 billion kWh gross of electricity in 2006, 27% came from coal, 29% from gas, 8% from oil, 17.5% from hydro and 18.5% from geothermal. Electricity consumption is increasing steadily and an additional 3 GWe of base-load capacity is required by 2013 to avert shortages.
In response to the 1973 oil crisis, the Philippines decided to build the two-unit Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP). Construction of Bataan 1 – a 621 MWe Westinghouse pressurized water reactor – began in 1976 and it was completed in 1984 at a cost of $460 million. However, due to financial issues and safety concerns related to earthquakes, the plant was never loaded with fuel or operated. In April 2007, the Philippine government made the final payment for the plant. The government was considering converting it into a natural gas-fired power plant, but this was impractical, and the plant has simply been maintained at a cost of some $800,000 per year.
In 2007 the Philippines Department of Energy (DOE) set up a project to study the development of nuclear energy, in the context of an overall energy plan for the country. Nuclear energy would be considered in order to reduce the country’s dependency on imported oil and coal. In its 2008 update of the national energy plan, 600 MWe was projected on line in 2025, with further 600 MWe increments in 2027, 2030 and 2034 to give 2400 MWe.
In 2008 an IAEA mission commissioned by the government advised that Bataan-1 could be refurbished and economically and safely be operated for 30 years. Refurbishment, with upgrade of safety and instrument & control systems, was estimated to cost $800 million to $1 billion. The IAEA was also to recommend a policy framework for nuclear power development in the country. In December 2008 the National Power Corporation commissioned Korea Electric Power Corp (KEPCO, parent company of KHNP) to conduct an 18-month feasibility study on commissioning Bataan. One factor in choosing KEPCO for this was its experience with Kori-2, a very similar unit in Korea. Its preliminary recommendation in December 2009 was that Bataan should be refurbished.
As well as this, the government is considering two further 1000 MWe Korean Standard Nuclear Plant units, using equipment from the aborted North Korean KEDO project.
The government is establishing a working group with a view to proceeding along the same lines as Thailand, retaining engineering consultants to guide progress. The Department of Energy is considering how to rebuild local skills in nuclear sciences and engineering. The state-owned National Power Corporation (Napocor) originally had 710 nuclear engineers who were trained by Westinghouse and Ebasco Overseas Corp. in the 1980s, but this has declined to about one hundred, many of whom are due to retire in the next five to ten years.
The Philippines’ safeguards agreement with the IAEA under the NPT entered force in 1974 and it has signed but not ratified the Additional Protocol. In 1998 it signed the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and Radioactive Waste Management.
Vietnam produced 56.5 billion kWh gross in 2006 from 11.4 GWe of plant, giving per capita consumption of 445 kWh/yr. In 2006 42% of electricity came from hydro, 37% from gas, 17% from coal, and demand is growing rapidly. In mid 2008 capacity was about 12.5 GWe and demand significantly higher than this, resulting in rationing. According to the government at the end of 2006, electricity demand is expected to grow 15% pa to 2010 and it plans to increase generating capacity to 25 GWe. Demand growth in 2009 is about 13%.
In the early 1980s two preliminary nuclear power studies were undertaken, followed by another which reported in 1995 that: “Around the year 2015, when electricity demand reaches more than 100 billion kWh, nuclear power should be introduced for satisfying the continuous growth in the country’s electricity demand in that time and beyond”.
In February 2006 the government announced that a 2000 MWe nuclear power plant should be on line by 2020. This general target was confirmed in a nuclear power development plan approved by the government in August 2007, with the target being raised to a total of 8000 MWe nuclear by 2025. A general law on nuclear energy was passed in mid 2008, and a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework is being developed.
A pre-feasibility study for 2000 MWe in Ninh Thuan province carried out by the Ministry of Industry & Trade was approved by the National Assembly in November 2009, and a comprehensive feasibility study will be undertaken by 2012.
As of October 2008, two reactors total 2000 MWe were planned at Phuoc Dinh in the southern Ninh Thuan province to be constructed from 2014 and come into operation from about 2020, followed by another 2000 MWe at Vinh Hai in the Ninh Hai district. These plants would be followed by a further 6000 MWe by 2030, subsequently increased to having a total of 15,000 MWe by 2030. The anticipated cost of the first two plants is not less than $11.3 billion, and some 85% of this would need to be found from overseas loans.
Atomstroyexport, Westinghouse, EdF, and China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC) are in discussion about supplying the first two twin-unit plants. South Korea expressed interest in bidding for the project. An unconfirmed report early in 2010 said that the Japanese government, with Tepco and others, was soliciting an $11 billion contract. Another unconfirmed report said that a consortium of Mitsubishi, Toshiba and Hitachi bid for the project, but lost out to Atomstroyexport, which for some time has appeared to be the leading contender to build the first two plants.
Since 2006, nuclear cooperation agreements have been signed with France, China (in particular with CGNPC), South Korea, Japan, Russia, USA and Canada. In 2007 there was an agreement between the US Department of Energy’s (DoE’s) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and Vietnam’s Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) for cooperation and information exchange on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. June 2008 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Vietnam Agency for Radiation and Nuclear Safety & Control (Varans) signed a cooperation agreement to share technical information on nuclear energy as well as exchanging information about regulations, environmental impact and safety of nuclear sites. Vietnam’s new Atomic Energy Law was passed in June 2008 and came into effect early in 2009. A further nuclear cooperation agreement with the USA was signed in March 2010.
An early nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia relates principally to Vietnam’s 500 kW Da Lat research reactor, built in 1980. This replaced an earlier US Triga MkII reactor which started in 1963 but was dismantled by the USA in the early 1970s.
The Vietnam Atomic Energy Commission was established in 1976 and is under the Ministry of Science & Technology. Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) will be the company responsible for building and operating the plants, and will be the sole investor for the first two plants (each nominally 2 x 1000 MWe). The estimated $10.3 billion for these would be financed 25% EVN equity and the balance would be borrowed from countries supplying the technology.
Vietnam’s safeguards agreement with the IAEA under the NPT entered force in 1990 and it has signed but not ratified the Additional Protocol.
Peak demand is about 20 GWe and in 2006 some 139 billion kWh gross was generated. About 68% was from natural gas, 18% from coal. Installed capacity is about 28 GWe, half of it gas-fired. Forecast peak demand in 2021 is almost 50 GWe. Thailand has the potential to be a regional electricity hub for ASEAN countries.
Tentative plans to embark on a nuclear power program have been revived by a forecast growth in electricity demand of 7 per cent per year for the next twenty years. Capacity requirement in 2016 is forecast at 48 GWe. As gas prices rise, the Atomic Energy Commission and its Office of Atoms for Peace (OAP) however are assessing the feasibility of nuclear power, and any initial plants would probably be built by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Independent power producers have also expressed interest. The Ministry of Science & Technology is responsible for the issue.
As gas prices rose, Thailand’s National Energy Policy Council commissioned a feasibility study for a nuclear power plant in the country. Among the options in the draft power development plan for 2007-2021 was the construction of 5000 MWe of nuclear generating capacity, starting up in 2020-21.
In June 2007 the Energy Minister announced that EGAT will proceed with plans to build a 4000 MWe nuclear power plant, and budgeted some US$ 53 million between 2008 and 2011 on preparatory work, half of it coming from oil revenues. Construction is to commence in 2014. The capital cost is expected to be US$ 6 billion and electricity cost about USD 6 cents/kWh, slightly less than from coal.
The government plans to establish safety and regulatory infrastructure by 2014 and commissioned a formal 3-year feasibility study early in 2008. Then in October 2008 the engineering firm Burns & Roe was commissioned to undertake a 20-month study to recommend siting, technology and reactor size for the first plant. The project will then go out to tender with a view to starting construction in 2014. The government plans to have 1000 MWe nuclear on line by 2021 and another 1000 MWe a year later. An EGAT feasibility study lists five possible sites for the project. Two are in Surat Thani province and the others in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Trat and Nakhon Sawan.
In November 2009 EGAT and CLP Holdings Ltd signed an agreement with China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation regarding nuclear power development.
Thailand has had an operating research reactor since 1977 and a larger one is under construction.
Thailand’s safeguards agreement with the IAEA under the NPT entered force in 1974 and it has signed but not ratified the Additional Protocol.
Malaysia produced 91.6 billion kWh gross in 2006, 64% of this from gas, 25% from coal, 8% from hydro. It has about 24 GWe of capacity, a 55% increase over two years to 2005. Government policy is to reduce reliance on natural gas by building coal-fired capacity.
A comprehensive energy policy study including consideration of nuclear power will be completed before 2010. The main state-owned utility Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) is tentatively in favour of nuclear power and in August 2006 the Malaysian Nuclear Licensing Board said that plans for nuclear power after 2020 should be brought forward and two reactors built much sooner. This intention has since been reiterated from the Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation. In July 2008 the government directed TNB to set up a task force to look at the feasibility of nuclear power, the study likely to take two years. In September the government announced that it had no option but to commission nuclear power due to high fossil fuel prices, and set 2023 as target date. It then sent a draft energy policy blueprint back to the Energy Commission as it was not comprehensive enough. As of early 2010 the government had a $7 billion budget to build a nuclear power plant by 2025.
The Malaysian Institute for Nuclear Technology Research has operated a 1 MW Triga research reactor since 1982. In April 2007 MINT was renamed the Malaysian Nuclear Agency (or Nuclear Malaysia) to reflect its role in promoting the peaceful uses of atomic energy.
Malaysia’s safeguards agreement with the IAEA under the NPT entered force in 1972 and it has signed but not ratified the Additional Protocol. For some years Malaysia was a unregulated transhipment point for nuclear technology smuggling by Iran, Pakistan and North Korea, but in April 2010 it adopted an export control law to thwart this activity.
Australia produced 255 billion kWh from 46 GWe of capacity in 2006, with 23 billion kWh/yr being embedded in aluminium exports. Final consumption was 187 billion kWh, hence per capita consumption (net of Al exports) is 9100 kWh/yr. Low-cost power is a competitive advantage of the country. 80% of electricity comes from coal-fired plant, 12% from gas and 7% from hydro. This gives it a high output of CO2, which is the main reason that discussion has started on possible nuclear generation in the future. Australia joined the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in September 2007.
Australia has operated a research reactor since 1956 and has now commissioned its 20 MWt replacement.
About 1970 the Australian government sought tenders for building a nuclear power reactor at Jervis Bay, NSW. Designs from UK, USA, Germany and Canada were short listed, but a change in leadership led to the project being cancelled in 1972. However, until 1983 there were various plans and proposals for building an enrichment plant.
At the end of 2006 the report of the Prime Minster’s expert taskforce considering nuclear power was released. It said nuclear power would be 20-50% more expensive than coal-fired power and (with renewables) it would only be competitive if “low to moderate” costs are imposed on carbon emissions (A$ 15-40 – US$ 12-30 – per tonne CO2). “Nuclear power is the least-cost low-emission technology that can provide base-load power” and has low life cycle impacts environmentally. The first nuclear plants could be running in 15 years, and looking beyond that, 25 reactors at coastal sites might be supplying one third of Australia’s (doubled) electricity demand by 2050. Certainly “the challenge to contain and reduce greenhouse gas emissions would be considerably eased by investment in nuclear plants.” “Emission reductions from nuclear power could reach 8 to 18% of national emissions in 2050″.
See also: Australia paper.